Taupo District Economic Monitor December Quarter 2012

Economic ReportIntroduction:
This report provides an analysis and assessment of the current economic situation within the Taupo district area, trends over the past year and the economic outlook for the district for the year ahead. Data availability limits the analysis of trends in the report to primarily the year ended December 2012. The base information for the analysis is sourced from a range of agencies including Statistics New Zealand, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in Wellington, Government agencies and other organisations. Growth comparisons with the country as a whole are included in the analysis, where appropriate.

Trend summary:

There have been a number of individual economic indicator gains in the Taupo district over the past year. These include as follows:

Positive economic changes:

  • Further natural population increase and net internal migration gain.
  • Significant additional consented new residential development during the year.
  • Consented new retail-wholesale trade, hospitality sector, storage and farm building increased significantly last year.
  • Increased retail spending, house sales and new motor vehicle registrations.
  • An increase in primary industries, utilities/ construction and business services GDP.
  • Increased Fonterra dairy payout and increased forestry export returns.
  • Relative stability in terms of unemployment benefit numbers.
  • A lower rate of unemployment in the district, compared to the national rate.

Downside changes over the past year include:

  • Virtually nil overall change in total economic activity/ GDP in the district.
  • Falls in food processing-manufacturing and Government administration sector GDP.
  • A continuing overall international population migration loss from the area.
  • Challenges facing the sheep/beef farming sector; forecast fall in gross farm revenue.
  • Significant fall in commercial accommodation based visitor activity levels.
  • Reduced overall employment.
  • Reduced building alterations work.

Overall, despite a number of individual economic indicator gains last year, the Taupo district economy remains in a relatively quiet 'mood'. The district will be looking to its traditional industry strengths of pastoral/ dairy farming, forestry and logging, manufacturing of forest products, geothermal energy generation and the visitor industry, to assist in leading economic recovery and development in the area over the coming year.

 Economic 1

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Economic_ReportIntroduction:
This report provides an analysis and assessment of the current economic situation within the Taupo district area, trends over the past year and the economic outlook for the district for the year ahead. Data availability limits the analysis of trends in the report to the year ended September 2012. The base information for the analysis is sourced from a range of agencies including Statistics New Zealand, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in Wellington, Government agencies and other organisations. Growth comparisons with the country as a whole are included in the analysis, where appropriate.



Trend summary:

There have been a number of individual economic indicator gains in the Taupo district over the past year. These include as
follows:

Positive economic changes:
− Further natural population increase and net internal migration gain.
− Additional new residential development during the year and slightly up on the 2011 September year's figure.
− Consented new commercial and industrial building has held up fairly well over the past year.
− Significant increase in the total number of new non-residential buildings consented.
− Increased retail spending, house sales and new motor vehicle registrations.
− An increase in primary industries, utilities/ construction and business services GDP.
− Relatively stable overall employment in the district during the past three years.
− A fall in the number of people receiving the unemployment benefit.
− A lower rate of unemployment in the district, compared to the national rate.

Downside changes over the past year include:
− Nil overall change in total economic activity/ GDP in the district.
− Noticeable falls in processing-manufacturing and transport/ storage GDP.
− A continuing overall international population migration loss from the area.
− Decline in visitor arrivals and nights spent in commercial visitor accommodation.
− However, visitor arrivals and nights spent in commercial accommodation in October this year were up 1.8% and 3.4%respectively on the figures for October 2011.
− General fall in international commodity prices for NZ rural production.

There has been an increased number of local economic indicators moving in a positive direction in the Taupo district over the past year compared to the previous year, which is a welcome change. However, as evidenced by the GDP growth result for the year, overall economic activity in the district still remains fairly subdued. The district will be very much looking forward to, amongst other things, the traditional significant summer lift in tourism and holidaying to the area and the economic spinoffs from this. 

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Economic_GraphIntroduction:

This report provides an analysis and assessment of the current economic situation within the Taupo district area, trends over the past year and the economic outlook for the district for the year ahead. Data availability limits the analysis of trends in the report to the year ended June 2012. The base information for the analysis is sourced from a range of agencies including Statistics New Zealand, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in Wellington and other organisations. Growth comparisons with the country as a whole are included in the analysis, where appropriate.


Trend Summary:

There have been a number of positive individual economic indicator gains in the Taupo district over the past year.

These include as follows:

  • Positive economic changes in the district over the past year include:
  • Further natural population increase and net internal migration gain.
  • Additional new residential development (although continuing to decline on an annual basis since 2007).
  • A stable volume of consented new commercial and industrial building over the past two years.
  •  A doubling in the total value of consented new commercial and industrial building, with significantly increased activity in the storage and industrial sectors.
  • Increased retail spending and house sales.
  • Increased consumer spending in the district on food items, visitor accommodation, cafes and restaurants and cultural/ recreational services. Slight increase in commercial accommodation based visitor arrivals into the district, accompanied by a noticeable gain in total visitor-nights spent in this accommodation.
  • An increase in primary industries sector GDP and employment.
  • Relatively stable overall employment in the district during the past three years.
  • A fall in the number of people receiving the unemployment benefit.
  • A lower rate of unemployment in the district, compared to the national rate.

Downside changes over the past year include:

  • Overall 0.5% decline in total economic activity/ GDP in the district.
  • 1.7% decline in employment.
  • A continuing significant overall net international migration loss from the area. Approximate 7% fall in consented new residential building activity in the district and a fall in total consented building alterations
  • Fall in dairy and forest product international commodity prices

Overall, whilst there have been some welcome economic gains within the district over the past year, the overall economic situation in the district remains relatively quiet and this situation is expected to continue over the balance of this year.

Taupo_Economic_Monitor
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DGLTDestination Great Lake Taupo, the regional tourism office of the Lake Taupo region commissioned this survey, to provide a snapshot of the visitors to our region in 2012.

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